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Prediction Methodology

How our prediction markets work, from creation to resolution.

How Predictions Work

Each prediction follows a simple lifecycle:

  1. Creation - Predictions are generated automatically based on current market conditions, or created manually by the team.
  2. Active Wagering - Users wager GG Points on YES or NO. The pool grows as more users participate.
  3. Resolution - When the prediction expires (or meets early-close criteria), it resolves based on real market data.
  4. Payout - Winners receive proportional payouts from the total pool. Losers forfeit their wagered points.

Prediction Types

Price Above Target

Resolves YES if the token price is above the target price at expiry.

Price Below Target

Resolves YES if the token price is below the target price at expiry.

Price Change %

Resolves YES if the token price changes by more than the target percentage.

Price Move (Either Direction)

Resolves YES if the token moves more than the target % in either direction. Can close early when target is hit.

Candle Closes Green

Resolves YES if the closing price is higher than the opening price for the time period.

Custom

Manually resolved predictions based on specific events or conditions.

Data Sources

  • CoinGecko API - Real-time and historical price data for all supported tokens. Used for prediction creation, resolution, and confidence intervals.
  • Gacha Galaxy AI - Powers prediction autopsies with AI-generated post-resolution analysis.
  • News Sentiment Engine - Aggregates crypto news articles and analyzes sentiment to inform confidence calculations.
  • Community Votes - The crowd's wagering behavior itself is a data source, reflected in the YES/NO percentages.

Auto-Generation

Predictions are automatically generated using a template system:

  • Weekly predictions - Generated from 5 templates across 12 tokens with target multipliers (e.g., 10% above, 10% below current price).
  • 5-minute predictions - Created every 5 minutes for 20+ tokens. Include "move more than 0.5%" and "candle green" types.
  • Smart targets - Target prices are calculated from current market prices using configurable multipliers.
  • Duplicate prevention - The system checks for existing similar predictions before creating new ones.

Resolution Logic

Predictions resolve automatically through two mechanisms:

  • Expiry Resolution - When a prediction's end date passes, the current price is compared against the target. The outcome is determined mathematically.
  • Early Close - 5-minute "price move" predictions can resolve early if the target price change is hit before expiry. When early-closed, a new prediction is automatically recreated.

Empty predictions (no participants) are automatically cleaned up. Resolved predictions older than 30 days are archived.

Payout Formula

Winners receive proportional payouts from the total pool:

Payout = (Your Wager / Winning Pool) × Total Pool

Worked Example

A prediction has a total pool of 10,000 GG Points: 6,000 on YES, 4,000 on NO.

  • You wagered 1,000 on YES. YES wins.
  • Your share: 1,000 / 6,000 = 16.67%
  • Your payout: 16.67% × 10,000 = 1,667 GG Points
  • Your profit: 1,667 - 1,000 = +667 GG Points

The less popular a side is, the higher the potential payout for those who bet on it correctly.

Live Stats

Total Predictions 101
Resolved 79
Currently Active 12
Total Wagered 1,180
Resolved YES 15
Resolved NO 64
Total Payouts 883

Confidence Interval Calculation

Wilson Score (50% weight)

Statistical interval based on participant count. More participants = tighter band. Uses z=1.96 (95% confidence).

Historical Accuracy (30% weight)

Looks at last 50 resolved predictions of the same type + token. More history = tighter spread.

Token Volatility (20% weight)

Maps 24h price change to spread. <2% = 10pt, 2-5% = 15pt, 5-10% = 20pt, 10%+ = 25pt spread.

Final Band = (Wilson × 0.5) + (Historical × 0.3) + (Volatility × 0.2)

Methodology Hash Format

Each prediction has a unique methodology hash (e.g., PA-3F2A-1B9C-v2.1) encoding its type, data sources, and parameters.

PA = Price Above

PB = Price Below, PC = Price Change, PM = Price Move, CG = Candle Green, CU = Custom

SHA-256 Fingerprint

8-char hash of prediction parameters for auditability and reproducibility.

Accuracy by Type

Type Total YES Rate NO Rate
Price Change Percentage 2 0% 100%
Price Move (Either Direction) 71 15% 85%
Candle Closes Green 6 67% 33%