US Shutdown Odds at 75% — How Hard Will Bitcoin Be Hit?

The US federal government is heading toward a partial shutdown, putting bitcoin markets on alert. However, unlike last year’s 43-day full shutdown, the smaller scale of this potential closure suggests price impact may be contained. With six of twelve spending bills already passed and historical data showing 60% of shutdown crises end in last-minute deals, markets appear to be pricing in a limited disruption scenario. Shutdown Odds at 75% with $13.3 Million Wagered According to the prediction market platform Polymarket, the probability of a shutdown on January 31 is 75% in the Asian morning hours. Total betting volume has exceeded $13.3 million. The impasse stems from Democrats’ opposition to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding bill. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer stated, “I will vote no on any legislation that funds ICE until it is reined in and overhauled.” If no agreement is reached by midnight on January 30, some federal agencies will cease operations. Partial Shutdown: A Different Scenario from Last Year This potential shutdown differs significantly from the one in October 2025. Back then, all 12 appropriations bills were blocked, triggering a record 43-day full government shutdown. This time, six spending bills have already been signed into law. According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, the departments of Agriculture, Veterans Affairs, Commerce, and Energy have secured full fiscal-year funding. DHS also holds approximately $178 billion from the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” passed last year. This allows the agency to continue operations largely uninterrupted. A pseudonymous market analyst known as “CryptoOracle,” who correctly predicted last October’s shutdown days before it began, had warned that a full shutdown would send shockwaves through both traditional and digital markets. “The shutdown will break liquidity first, then fix it later,” he wrote at the time. “Expect a 30–40% Bitcoin correction — and then the rally of...