US Government Shutdown 75% Likely: What It Means for Bitcoin Markets

TLDR Polymarket data shows 75% probability of US partial government shutdown starting January 31 over DHS funding debate Senate Democrats block $1.2 trillion spending bill following death of Minneapolis nurse Alex Pretti by federal agents Six of twelve appropriations bills already passed, making this shutdown smaller than October 2025’s 43-day closure Bitcoin trades at $89,177, down 29% from October peak, as markets assess potential liquidity impact Historical patterns suggest 60% chance of last-minute congressional deal before Friday deadline The United States government approaches a potential partial shutdown with 75% probability according to Polymarket data. Bettors have wagered $13.3 million on the outcome as the Friday deadline approaches. BREAKING: U.S. Government shutdown odds hit 75%. https://t.co/GaQ0l50p8M pic.twitter.com/EhNa46JRxw — Polymarket (@Polymarket) January 24, 2026 Senate Democrats are blocking a House-passed spending measure over Department of Homeland Security funding concerns. The standoff follows the killing of Alex Pretti, a 37-year-old nurse, by federal agents in Minneapolis. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer announced he will vote against any bill funding ICE until the agency undergoes reform. The spending package totals more than $1.2 trillion and covers nine federal departments. These include Defense, Treasury, State, Health and Human Services, Labor, Housing and Urban Development, Transportation, and Education. The bill requires 60 Senate votes to pass but faces Democratic opposition strong enough to sustain a filibuster. Smaller Scope Than 2025 Full Shutdown This potential shutdown presents a different scenario from last October’s crisis. The 2025 shutdown lasted 43 days and blocked all twelve government appropriations bills. This time six spending bills have already become law. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget confirms that Agriculture, Veterans Affairs, Commerce, and Energy departments secured full fiscal year fu...