Bitcoin price faces a crucial weekend test as US growth collapses to 0.7% while inflation stays stubborn

On Mar. 13, the US economy delivered a data dump that landed somewhere between uncomfortable and alarming. The GDP for the 2025 fourth quarter was revised down to 0.7% from an initial estimate of 1.4%, following 4.4% growth in the third quarter. January core PCE rose 3.1% year over year, with a 0.4% monthly increase. January durable-goods orders were virtually unchanged, while core capital goods orders came in flat, with shipments down 0.1%. Real consumer spending edged up just 0.1%. These numbers were delayed by last year's 43-day shutdown and hit the market after the Feb. 28 start of the US-Israeli war on Iran. Oil spiked to $119.50 this week before easing back to near $100. US gasoline prices are up 20% to $3.58 a gallon since the war began. Related Reading Bitcoin shrugs off oil surge and geopolitical tension, setting up potential push toward $80k Spot BTC stabilizes as speculative froth subsides, ETF flows resume, and futures hint at momentum shift. Mar 12, 2026 · Oluwapelumi Adejumo The Fed meets Mar. 17-18, and futures markets have scaled back expected 2026 rate cuts to about a one-quarter-point move by December, down from two before the conflict. Bitcoin, meanwhile, has been showing early signs of stabilization. Glassnode said on Mar. 11 that ETF inflows had returned, spot demand was beginning to recover, funding had turned negative, and options volatility had eased. BTC traded around $70,600 as of press time after hitting $74,000 intraday on Mar. 13. US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in a net $583 million from Mar. 9 through Mar. 12, according to Farside Investors data, following a $348.9 million outflow on Mar. 6. Bitcoin's fragile rebound is running straight into the worst possible macro mix for risk assets: slower growth, sticky inflation, and a Federal Reserve with fewer clean options. Related Reading Bitcoin drops after inflation surprise — but one quiet detail just changed the rate-cut story Hotter producer inflation knocks Bitcoin lower as rate-cut bets s...