Bitcoin faces slide to $60,000 if impending US shutdown triggers a statistical blackout

Bitcoin traders are aggressively positioning for a US government shutdown that could begin Jan. 31 if Congress fails to extend funding that expires Jan. 30. The urgency of the setup is visible in prediction markets, where odds changes have become tradable headlines in their own right. Shutdown contracts on prediction platforms like Polymarket have swung to as high as 80% for a shutdown by Jan. 31. The market has drawn nearly $11 million in bets as of press time. US Government Shutdown Odds (Source: Polymarket) For BTC traders, these rapidly shifting probabilities translate into short-dated hedging demand and sharper moves around incremental legislative updates. Notably, a partial shutdown tied to unfinished appropriations is the core risk under debate. The Wall Street Journal reports that this includes a contentious fight within the Department of Homeland Security in a broader $1.3 trillion spending package. Consequently, the transmission to Bitcoin depends on whether the lapse disrupts core economic data releases and whether ETF outflows accelerate as managers cut risk. Data fog is the headline risk, because rates set the tone for Bitcoin A shutdown is not a debt-ceiling default event because Treasury interest and principal payments continue. However, the first-order shock of these events is often informational. If a funding lapse pulls staff from agencies that publish market-moving releases, investors can lose scheduled anchors for inflation, jobs, and spending trends, forcing rate markets to trade with less clarity than they typically get from the macro calendar. So, the risk is less about the government missing a payment and more about the market losing a timetable. In prior shutdowns, officials warned that releases, including jobs and CPI, could be delayed, which is a straightforward problem for any market trying to price the path of monetary policy. Related Reading Inflation data goes missing: US shutdown wipes out October CPI, leaving Bitcoin hanging Why O...