Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Rally as Fed Signals Liquidity Boost

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes has proposed that the U.S. Federal Reserve could soon expand its balance sheet to support the Japanese yen and government bonds. He argued that this covert money printing would directly lift the price of Bitcoin (BTC) and other cryptocurrencies. Hayes Links Yen Stress, Fed Action, and Crypto Markets In a January 28 essay titled “Woomph,” Hayes stated that the Fed has the legal authority to intervene in foreign exchange and bond markets, which would address economic pressures in Japan that threaten U.S. Treasury stability. According to him, the implication of that move for crypto markets is simple: “Bitcoin and quality shitcoins will mechanically levitate in fiat terms as the quantity of paper money rises.” Hayes constructed a scenario where the New York Federal Reserve, coordinating with the U.S. Treasury, creates new dollar reserves to buy Japanese yen. Those yen would then be used to purchase Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs). The goal would be to strengthen the yen and lower JGB yields, preventing Japanese investors from selling U.S. Treasuries to repatriate funds since a mass sale could spike U.S. borrowing costs. He pointed to a concrete event as potential evidence: a “rate check” by the New York Fed on USD/JPY exchange rates on January 23. Analysts at QCP Capital noted on January 26 that this action hinted at official sensitivity to a weakening yen and made traders defensive. Hayes interpreted these actions as the Fed “deliberately and publicly telegraphing its intentions.” The legal mechanism, according to the crypto veteran, involves the Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund and the Fed’s authority to hold foreign currency assets. He wrote, “Buffalo Bill Bessent can intervene in the currency markets… The Treasury taps the NY Fed to help manipulate the markets.” In his opinion, confirmation would be visible in the weekly growth of the “Foreign Currency Denominated Assets” on the Fed’s balance sheet. Market Skepticism Remains ...