2Y SMA/2: The Crypto Bear Market Indicator That Has Called Every Major Price Bottom

TLDR: The 2Y SMA/2 is derived by halving the two-year simple moving average and has marked bottoms across BTC, ETH, BNB, and XRP. Solana, Dogecoin, and Cardano have already reached the 2Y SMA/2, placing them in historically deep discount territory this cycle. Chainlink tested the 2Y SMA/2 with precision and posted a bounce, reinforcing its role as a reliable long-term support zone. TRON remains nearly 50% above the 2Y SMA/2, standing out as one of the most resilient altcoins in the current bear market. The 2Y SMA/2 is gaining renewed attention as crypto markets continue their downward trend. Derived by halving the two-year simple moving average, the indicator has consistently marked price bottoms across major cryptocurrencies. Analyst Joao Wedson recently stated that all crypto bear markets eventually reach this level. His observation has sparked discussion among traders tracking long-term technical levels across the market. A Simple Calculation With a Consistent Track Record The two-year simple moving average is already a widely followed tool among crypto analysts globally. It smooths out short-term volatility by averaging price data over a 24-month period. However, Wedson’s thread introduced a variation that carries even more historical weight. Dividing that average by two produces a level that has repeatedly aligned with major price bottoms. This pattern has been observed across some of the largest cryptocurrencies by market cap. Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB, and XRP have all respected the 2Y SMA/2 during past bear cycles. Each of these assets eventually gravitated toward this level before staging meaningful recoveries. The consistency across different assets is what makes the indicator difficult to dismiss. The calculation itself is straightforward, yet its market behavior is notable. A simple mathematical adjustment to a well-known moving average produces a reliable long-term floor. This kind of simplicity often resonates with analysts who prefer tools grounded in...